Bitcoin On-chain & Macro Analysis with Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair

 
 
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“The models all break to the upside if the trust is lost in the system, if the legacy market cracks...then bitcoin’s going to moon in dollar terms again because that marginal seller is like - wait, I don’t need to sell, I don’t want to sell, this is the only thing I want to own.”
— Dylan LeClair

SHOW DESCRIPTION

Location: Remotely
Date: Thursday 5th August
Company: Independent, Bitcoin Magazine
Role: On-chain Analyst, Director of Financial Markets & Research

From early May to late July, the price of Bitcoin dropped substantially from ~$64k to below $30k. This was following a wave of negative press, a renewed ESG, anti-proof of work narrative and Elon Musk FUDing Bitcoin. 

During this time, the sentiment amongst most Bitcoin traders turned negative, with many calling for the price to drop into the low $20,000s. The futures markets reflected this negative sentiment, with a large majority of participants in short positions.

One faction of the trading community that remained bullish throughout the turndown was the on-chain analysts. While the price fell, key on-chain metrics pointed at this being a dip rather than the beginning of a long term bear market. New users on the network grew, short term holders turned to long term holders, and retail was buying the dip.

Many on-chain analysts predicted a sizeable short squeeze that quickly took the price from sub-$30k to over $40k in just a few days.

So, what's next for Bitcoin? Is this just a dead-cat bounce, or are we heading higher?

In this episode, I talk to on-chain analyst Will Clemente, and Bitcoin Magazines Director of Financial Markets & Research Dylan LeClair. We discuss the recent Bitcoin price action and the current macroeconomic backdrop.

TIMESTAMPS

00:04:11: Introductions
00:06:23: Will's background
00:11:22: Bitcoin for the new generation
00:19:46: Rethinking education
00:23:31: Will's newsletter
00:29:24: On-chain data analysis
00:39:56: News affecting the price
00:48:50: Macro analysis of Bitcoin
00:50:46: Bitcoin is the escape valve
00:54:27: Perpetual credit expansion explained
00:59:38: The Infrastructure Bill
01:01:28: US Government vs Bitcoin
01:06:27: Will's price predictions
01:09:58: Dylan's predictions for this cycle
01:11:46: Final comments

 

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SHOW NOTES

PodcastPeter McCormack