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The Bitcoin Supercycle Revisited with Dan Held

Peter McCormack

Interview | Description | Timestamps | Show Notes

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The Bitcoin Supercycle Revisited with Dan Held - WBD341 Peter McCormack

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Location: Remotely
Date: Tuesday 27th April
Company: Kraken
Role: Growth Lead

When Dan Held first wrote about a possible bitcoin supercycle back in 2019, the idea seemed far fetched. The bitcoin price was just under $10,000, and we were a few months away from the first reported cases of COVID-19.

Now, 18 months on from that tweet, the idea of a supercycle is gaining traction. With governments around the world resorting to astonishing amounts of monetary and fiscal policy to temporarily prop up economies in response to COVID-19, the case for bitcoin has never been so clear. A new wave of investors has arrived, with bitcoin offering them a life raft from fiat currency debasement.

In early February, Dan Held came on the show to discuss the Supercycle thesis, and since then, the price of bitcoin is up over 50%. Still, more critically, Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in a move that plays nicely into the supercycle theory.

In this interview, I talk to Dan Held, the Growth Lead at Kraken. We discuss his supercycle thesis, the macro elements that make this cycle different and why traditional investors are waking up to bitcoin.

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00:05:28: Introduction
00:06:06: Origin of the supercycle
00:08:46: The supercycle is only a theory, not a prediction
00:12:21: Supercycle definition
00:16:59: Invalidation signals
00:19:01: Front runners to sell out the market
00:21:09: Tesla
00:29:16: Steady growth vs a fast run-up
00:30:49: Defining the floor of a bear market
00:32:38: The Facebook rumour…
00:35:36: Institutional and corporate investment
00:38:45: The unseen narratives
00:41:24: ETFs provide a strong signal for the supercycle
00:44:12: Central banks FOMO
00:48:29: If China or Russia buys Bitcoin
00:50:25: UK pandemic rules still in place
00:54:59: Repricing fears
00:57:34: Energy FUD
01:02:49: Final comments


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