Has the Bitcoin Price Bottomed Out? With The Rational Root

 
 

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“A model is just a way to try to predict something, but this got so popular that people just started believing in it completely, and stopped being rational about it. You always have to be a bit sceptical about models that predict the future, they can be wrong.”
— Rational Root

SHOW DESCRIPTION

The Rational Root is a Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analyst and in this interview, we discuss developing & using Bitcoin price models. We look in detail specifically at his Bitcoin Spiral Models, Bitcoin hodl price models and Bitcoin halving & cycle charts.

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Bitcoin is currently in a bear market that the vast majority failed to predict. In fact, late last year, there was a lot of talk about $100k, $200k+ bitcoin that clearly failed to materialise. While bitcoin has experienced drops like this before, this time, the cycles played out differently.

So why are we in a bear market? Alongside the wider macro environment of the fed tightening and raising interest rates, Bitcoin was dragged down by the collapse of Terra/Luna and the subsequent Three Arrows Capital & Celcius meltdown (amongst others), and in June, the price got as low as $17,500.

Since then, bitcoin has been relatively stable, bouncing between $20k-$25k. Onchain analysis shows that since the June bottom, bitcoin has been under heavy accumulation. The question now is, where is the bottom and have we already hit it?

TIMESTAMPS

00:01:58: Introductions
00:05:52: Stock-to-flow model and the Bitcoin spiral chart
00:22:42: Criticism of on-chain data analysis
00:28:38: The HODL Model
00:43:03: The HODL Price Model, and stock-to-flow
00:58:20: Bitcoin halvings, cycle charts, and bottom indicators
01:10:11: Personal usage of the charts
01:12:36: Macro markets and Bitcoin's correlation to the stock market
01:14:21: Final comments

 

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SHOW NOTES

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