Economic Warfare in Russia & Ukraine with Lyn Alden

 
 

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“We’ve assumed global peace: no geopolitical issues, we’re all gonna kumbaya, get together; and as we enter a world where that’s not the case anymore, we have to put more resiliency into our supply chains, more duplication – so if you have to duplicate things, it’s inherently less efficient, and more inflationary, but more resilient.”
— Lyn Alden

SHOW DESCRIPTION

Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss the economic impacts of the Ukraine Russia conflict, including the effect of sanctions on Russia, wider global impacts, and the responses of individuals, companies, and nations.

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As the Ukraine Russia conflict continues well into the third week, it is hard to think beyond the wretched humanitarian impacts. But, it is imperative the serious economic impacts are analysed, both in terms of the direct and indirect collateral costs of the physical war, and the unprecedented economic actions being applied as tools of warfare.

The main issue is that this conflict is occurring at a critical juncture for the world economy. The Covid pandemic compounded structural issues in the global economy precipitated a decade earlier by the global financial crisis. The conflict is having a detrimental effect on fragile markets, whilst exacerbating existing supply chain issues leading to further inflationary pressures.

However, the conflict is also creating new and potentially more important problems. The world economy since WW2 has been based on pillars that were thought to be unbreachable. The central pillar has been the use of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. As a direct consequence of actions taken in response to the conflict, this is now open to question.

TIMESTAMPS

00:04:25: Introductions
00:07:04: Financial and commodity warfare
00:10:22: Sanctions on Russia and the impacts on the people
00:13:44: The devaluation of the rouble
00:16:26: If Russia was to go insolvent…
00:20:59: Impact of supply restrictions to Russia
00:24:22: Global impacts, and China's position
00:28:38: Ukraine's economic impact and food shortages
00:36:16: Oil imports and exports
00:38:57: Inflation - official CPI vs real number
00:47:12: Contractual inflation clauses
00:49:58: Wider economic risks and historical examples
00:59:33: Tips for becoming economically resilient
01:01:43: Future reserve currency options
01:06:04: Final comments

 

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SHOW NOTES

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